Positive Momentum Builds as Year-End Approaches

As we approach the end of the year, it’s a good time to step back and look at what’s shaping markets right now. The final week of October brought several important developments across earnings, monetary policy, and global trade — all of which continue to influence the outlook as we move into year-end.

Here are a few key highlights:

Corporate earnings remain strong

• More than 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported third-quarter results, and about 83% have exceeded earnings expectations.

• That puts the index on pace for a fourth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth.

• A major theme has been the surge in capital spending from Big Tech. The seven largest technology companies are expected to invest more than $500 billion next year to expand AI infrastructure.

• While investors have generally welcomed this investment, Meta’s results showed that markets are becoming more selective and focused on profitability and spending discipline.

The Federal Reserve introduced some uncertainty

• The Fed reduced interest rates by 0.25% at its October meeting, which was widely expected.

• Chair Powell emphasized that a December rate cut is “far from a foregone conclusion,” and the overall tone was less dovish than markets anticipated.

• Treasury yields moved higher following the meeting, reflecting ongoing debate among Committee members about the path forward.

• The Fed described a “no hire, no fire” labor environment, where most companies are maintaining headcount amid uncertainty.

• From our perspective, this dynamic supports the likelihood of continued rate cuts into 2026, even with inflation risks still present.

A U.S.–China trade truce lowered global tensions

• At the APEC summit in South Korea, Presidents Trump and Xi agreed to a one-year trade truce.

• The deal included reduced U.S. tariffs, renewed Chinese soybean purchases, and a pause on China’s rare-earth export restrictions.

• The effective tariff burden now stands around 12%, well below most forecasts that had projected rates in the mid-teens.

• These easing trade tensions have helped support corporate earnings and global sentiment.

Market reaction and outlook

• Financial markets responded positively, marking the sixth consecutive monthly gain for the S&P 500 and the seventh straight for the Nasdaq.

• Historically, the November through April period has been the strongest six months of the year for stocks.

• Some gains may have been pulled forward, and with leadership concentrated in a few large-cap names, the market could be more sensitive to short-term pullbacks.

• Overall, strong earnings, improving trade conditions, and a favorable seasonal trend are encouraging, but the path of monetary policy remains a key variable.

• We continue to take a selective and tactical approach as we close out the year.

Closing thoughts

As the year wraps up, staying disciplined and focused on your long-term goals remains the best approach. Markets will always react to headlines and short-term data, but a steady strategy built around diversification, cash flow, and tax efficiency helps keep your plan on course regardless of the noise.

Thanks as always for reading. If you’d like to discuss how these developments may impact your personal situation, please don’t hesitate to reach out. Here’s to a great holiday season and a strong finish to the year ahead.

_{Important Information}

_{This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.}

_{References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.}

_{All data is provided as of November 5, 2025.}

_{All index data from FactSet.}

_{The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.}

_{The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index.}

_{There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.}

_{Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

_{Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.}