Blog
Waiting for New Highs
Financial markets have experienced quite a bit of change this year in just two short months. We started the year hopeful that stocks would benefit from a better economic and monetary policy environment by the spring, but recent...
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Opportunities in 2023
Whether you’re one to set ambitious New Year’s resolutions or simply use the beginning of the year to reset on a few habits, there’s almost always some value in reflecting on the past year before looking ahead. The...
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Top 10 Provisions in SECURE 2.0
CONGRESS RECENTLY ENACTED LANDMARK RETIREMENT LEGISLATION KNOWN AS SECURE 2.0 THAT WILL INCENTIVIZE INDIVIDUALS TO SAVE FOR RETIREMENT, WHILE INCREASING ACCESS TO WORKPLACE PLANS. THE NEW LAW INCLUDES A NUMBER OF PROVISIONS INTENDED TO...
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Reasons for Optimism
We wish you a happy New Year and hope you were able to close out 2022 with friends and family.The beginning of a calendar year is often the time when the previous year’s reflections transition to a new year’s hopes. Given...
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Outlook 2023: Finding Balance
Through all the challenges, newfound opportunities, and every high and low we’ve experienced during the last couple of years, it’s no surprise why we might be striving for more balance. Whether it’s about the markets...
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Playbook for a Fed Pivot: Exploring Equity and Fixed Income Market Performance
Recent inflation data has tempered expectations for future Federal Reserve tightening, including a potential peak in the terminal rate near 5.0% in May or June of 2023. While the market has welcomed this news, history suggests the path...
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Maintaining Your Investment Cool When Markets Are Volatile
6 points that can help you feel more at ease with market volatilityAlthough market uncertainty might make you feel jittery, keeping your investment cool is critical to your financial success. While it's hard to watch your portfolio...
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Inflation and Rising Rates Supports Value
The growth vs. value debate has been pretty one-sided in 2022, with value outperforming growth for a sustained period for the first time in almost 15 years. However, the debate is heating up as investors begin to consider whether the...
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How Midterm Elections May Move Markets
Midterm elections are upon us, with Election Day on Tuesday. Republicans are strongly favored to win the House, and the Senate is roughly a tossup. We believe either outcome would be market-friendly, although the bigger market driver...
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Looking Ahead
October is now behind us and it has delivered on its track record as a historically favorable month for stocks, offering some respite for investors as major equity indices rose for the month. The downside pressure on equities had...
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Three Things to Know About Recessions: The 3 D’s
If the U.S. economy enters a recession, the causes and potential outcome will be hotly debated. At LPL Research, our starting point is always looking at history. This week’s commentary will remind us of three things we know about...
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Low Bar for Earnings Season Brings Third Quarter Expectations Down
Expectations are very low for this earnings season. The challenges are many, with intense cost pressures and slowing economic growth at the top of the list. The chorus of analysts and strategists calling for big cuts to estimates has...
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Could the Worst be Behind Us?
First, we want to acknowledge the tremendous damage and displacement caused by Hurricane Ian. Our thoughts are with those impacted by this devastating storm.This has clearly been a challenging year for households. Stocks and bonds are...
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Markets on Watch as Xi Jinping’s Influence to be Tested in October
On October 16, China will begin its 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing. This plenum is especially significant because it is expected that President Xi Jinping will be granted an unprecedented third term,...
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Better Times Ahead
In the last several weeks, we have continued to face elevated uncertainty in financial markets due to high inflation and rising interest rates, and we thought it was an important time to take stock with the final quarter of 2022 just...
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Why It May Be Time to Take Advantage of Higher Yields
The LPL Research Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee is increasing its recommended interest rate exposure in its tactical allocation from underweight to neutral. Now that interest rates have moved substantially higher, we...
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What Issues Should I Consider During A Recession Or Market Correction?
Market corrections and recessions are a normal part of the investment and financial planning process. When these events happen, the fear of what the future will look like can be overwhelming.It's important to remember that these types...
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5 Facts About Market Volatility
Here are 5 reassuring facts around market volatility:1) Volatility may be uncomfortable … but it’s normal.Just like muscle fatigue is part of any intense training program, volatility is an unavoidable part of the...
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How Much Higher Can Rates Go?
Inflationary dynamics continue to surprise to the upside, and markets now expect the Fed to pursue one of its most aggressive rate hiking campaign in years. U.S. Treasury yields continue to move higher as well. We think we’ve...
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Getting Jobs Market Back into Balance
Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell reiterated his warning that getting inflation under control will require some pain. Powell is likely making these warnings based on the arcane, clunky relationship between inflation and unemployment....
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Take a Hike
Taking a Hike: Four ways interest Rate Hikes Can Affect Your Finances Unless you live on another planet, you are fully aware of this thing called inflation — whether you’re at the grocery store, a gas station, buying...
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The Best and Worst of Times
When it comes to stock market performance, August was “the best of times, and the worst of times.” The strong market rally that peaked in mid-August was viewed by many analysts as a transition from a bear to bull market,...
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Earnings Recap: Still Hanging In There
Earnings growth of 6-7% doesn’t sound very exciting, but given the challenges corporate America has faced, we consider the nearly-complete second quarter earnings season a resounding success. The numerous challenges last quarter...
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Home Sales Fall (Again). What’s Next?
Existing home sales fell 5.9% in July, the sixth consecutive month of declines as higher interest rates weigh on housing affordability and prospective buyers. As the housing market slowed, so did prices. The median price for a single...
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Is This the Start of a New Bull Market?
Investors cheered the two better-than-expected inflation reports last week, pushing the S&P 500 to 16% above its June 16 low and only 11% below its all-time high. After this rebound, the key question investors are asking is whether...
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The Case for a U.S. Recession Weakens
The market pundits remain intensely focused on the question of whether the U.S. economy is in or about to enter recession, so we thought a piece on what a recession might mean for the stock market would be of interest. While...
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Big Week for Market Watchers
Last week was epic for market-watchers. A Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, a much-anticipated gross domestic product (GDP) report, and the busiest week of earnings season got most of the headlines. There was even a surprise out of...
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What a Week for the Stock Market
That was quite a week. These days a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting alone gets a lot of headlines and has market participants on the edge of their seats. Add to that the second straight quarter of negative gross domestic product...
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3 Factors That Could Change the Inflation Course
For the past year, supply-related problems contributed more to inflation than demand-related imbalances, but that may be changing soon. There are at least three factors that could change the course of inflation. First, the improvement...
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Managing Market Volatility
Markets rarely give us clear skies, and there are always threats to watch for on the horizon, but the right preparation, context, and support can help us navigate anything that may lie ahead. So far, this year hasn’t seen a...
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Midyear Outlook 2022: Navigating Turbulence
Markets rarely give us clear skies, and there are always threats to watch for on the horizon. But the right preparation, context, and support can help us navigate what lies ahead. So far, this year hasn’t seen a full-blown crisis...
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Constructive, Not Complacent: Lowering S&P 500 Target
Stocks have been unable to make up much ground since the June 16 lows, with a bear market rally amounting to only around a 4.3% gain in the S&P 500 Index since then (as of July 1). After the more than 6% rally the week of June 24 and...
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Looking Forward
As the calendar has turned to July, investors would certainly like to forget the first six months of 2022. However, the Fourth of July Independence Day holiday does bring with it reason for celebration. Not only is it the 246th...
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Relief at the Pump and for Portfolios?
2022 has been rough all-around for the American consumer. Not only are we battling decades-high inflation, but investors’ portfolios are off to one of the worst starts to a year in history as we near the halfway point. Our...
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Bear Market Q&A
The bear market that started on June 13 has left the S&P 500 Index 23.5% below its January 3 high. After the initial positive reaction to the Federal Reserve’s first 0.75% rate hike since 1994 and tough talk on inflation,...
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A Bear Market Is Officially Here
A bear market is officially here thanks largely to stubbornly high inflation. For many of us, it has probably felt like a bear market for a while now, but the S&P 500 Index didn’t close more than 20% below its January 3 record...
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Investing With Confidence
INVESTING WITH CONFIDENCE Guidance for resisting emotional investing and staying on track for the long term History has revealed that crises and extreme circumstances often inspire courage, innovation, and reinvention. That’s...
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Is the 60/40 Portfolio Dead?
This year has been tough for investors, not just because stocks have fallen but also because bonds have not helped mitigate those losses as they have historically done. Below we discuss the outlook for diversified portfolios of stocks...
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The Economy Is Slowing But Not Shrinking
Many pundits are issuing recession warnings and saying the economy is heading for a hard landing. Amid the cacophony of voices, we think the economy is slowing just like central bankers want but not shrinking. Further, we argue that a...
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Bull Market Hangs By a Thread
The bull market that began in March of 2020 came dangerously close to an end. From March 23, 2020 through January 3, 2022, the S&P 500 Index gained 114% (excluding dividends). From that January 3 closing high through the recent low on...
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Looking Through the Clouds
At the risk of sounding cliché, making the case for stocks to stage a second half rally back to the prior highs requires investors to see through some heavy cloud cover. If you prefer another market cliché, it’s times...
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Top 10 Provisions in the House Bipartisan Retirement Legislation
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Don't Expect the Fed To End This Bull Anytime Soon
Here we take a look back at historical performance for stocks before, after, and much after initial Fed rate hikes to help reassure any nervous investors out there.
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Holiday Resilience
We hope everyone enjoyed the Thanksgiving holiday with family and friends. While life has been challenging during the pandemic, we have a lot to be thankful for. At this time, we are especially grateful for COVID-19 vaccines and...
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The Stock Market, Economy, and New Year: Three Reasons To Be Thankful
There are only six weeks to go in 2021 and it has been an incredible year for the stock market bulls. In fact, in many ways it could go down as one of the best years ever. This week, in honor of Thanksgiving, we wanted to take a...
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A peek at peak inflation
After an upside inflation surprise in October, it’s clear that peak inflation may still be ahead, possibly even pushing into 2022. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its position that elevated inflation will be transitory...
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Developed International: If Not Now, When?
Since we began our investing careers, we’ve had the concept of diversification drilled into our heads. Some refer to it as the only free lunch in investing. Well, when it comes to geography, that advice hasn’t been helpful...
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Many Reasons to be Thankful
The past year and a half have tested all of us, but overall, the economy continues to strengthen, COVID-19 trends are greatly improving, and this still relatively young bull market is alive and well. As the leaves turn colors and begin...
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Retirement Plan Annual Maintenance
Perform this five-point inspection to help keep your retirement plan’s motor running smoothly Just like with a car, it’s a good idea to perform some annual maintenance on your retirement plan. Here’s a five-point...
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5 Things That Might Spook Markets
With Halloween over the weekend, what better to write about this week than what scares us? If our positive near-term market outlook proves to be overly optimistic, we believe one—or perhaps more than one—of these five...
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Bullish Setup into Year-End
The S&P 500 Index has gained more than 20% so far this year, making more than 50 record highs along the way. Certainly nobody should be upset with that return if that was all 2021 brought us. However, we see signs that there could be...
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Q3 Earnings Preview: Less Upside
"Looking out to 2022, prospects for above-average economic growth and further earnings gains potentially point to another good year for stock investors, though probably not as good as 2021 has been." - Jeff Buchbinder, CFA, Equity...
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Answering the Top Debt Ceiling Questions
Last week, Congress was able to push back a fast-approaching deadline for raising the debt ceiling to December. Markets applauded the move with a relief rally. Despite decreased uncertainty in the near term, we may be confronted with...
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Change May Bring Opportunities
One constant in life is change. During the past year and a half, we have experienced more change than any of us bargained for. Change is disruptive—but also brings opportunities. For investors right now, there is no shortage of...
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Thirty-Thousand Feet: Seven Foundational Concepts for Your Investment Program
Successful investors, both past and present, are looked upon with great reverence. From Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett to Paul Tudor Jones and David Tepper, professional investors appear to hold a key that few others possess. And...
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To Z or Not to Z: Why the Shape of the Recovery Still Matters
LPL Research is downgrading its 2021 U.S. GDP growth forecast from 6.25–6.75% to 5.75–6.25%. Growth is likely to come in at an annualized pace near 5% over the second half of the year. So, while expectations have been...
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Investing With Confidence
Guidance for resisting emotional investing and staying on track for the long term History has revealed that crises and extreme circumstances often inspire courage, innovation, and reinvention. That’s because we’re often...
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Revisiting Our 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecast
Until recently, we expected the 10-year Treasury yield to end the year between 1.75% and 2.0%. Now, however, there are two key elements suggesting we are unlikely to see significantly higher interest rates by year end: The Delta...
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Policy Risk Looms But Clarity Ahead
LPL Research explores a few policy-related risks that may increase market volatility in the near-term but maintain the fundamental backdrop for the economy remains strong. Several policy-related risks loom in September and October...
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The Bull Market Continues
The bull market continues, with the S&P 500 Index now up seven months in a row. Stocks have impressively gained 20% year-to-date, with the S&P 500 making 53 new all-time highs before the end of August—another new record. All of...
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Poking The Bear
LPL Research explores five things that some bears believe that do not worry us. First and foremost, this week’s commentary should not be construed to suggest that we are saying stocks will go up forever. We are also not saying...
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Six Months and Counting
Six months and counting. That is the current monthly winning streak for the S&P 500 Index. To take that a step further, this key equity benchmark has posted gains in 13 of the last 16 months—dating back to the March 2020 low....
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Midyear Outlook 2021: Picking Up Speed
In the first half of 2021, the U.S. economy powered forward faster than nearly anyone had expected. Speed can be exhilarating, but it can also be dangerous. In our view, the overall economic picture remains sound and will likely...
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Picking Up Speed
In the first half of 2021, the U.S. economy powered forward faster than nearly anyone had expected. Speed can be exhilarating, but it can also be dangerous. In our view, the overall economic picture remains sound and will likely...
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Three Things That Worry Us
Markets are off to a strong start this year, with the S&P 500 Index up about 14% so far. However, most of those gains came early in the year, and many stocks have stagnated over recent months. While we remain overweight on stocks...
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A Path to Normalcy
As we move into June, a path to normalcy is coming quickly with stadiums allowing full capacity, restaurants filling up, and summer vacations in full swing. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy continues to recover remarkably quickly and the...
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Out of the Shadows
As the calendar has turned to May, the popular “Sell in May and Go Away” stock market cliché is getting a lot of airtime. This is the idea that the stock market tends to be weakest between May and October (and...
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Spring Into A Positive Outlook
“The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.” Peter Lynch They say April showers bring May flowers. Well, after a lot of showers and storms over the past year, flowers are starting to bloom and...
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The Return to Normal is Approaching
It’s now been over a year since COVID-19 first hit American shores. While the pandemic has affected everyone to varying degrees, we can all agree that everyone’s life is different today than it was a year ago. It’s...
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Three Types of Lies
You can take any data and tell any story you want, but when you want to invest, you want to know what really matters.
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Stay the Course
“In the short-term, the market is a popularity contest. In the long-term, the market is a weighing machine.” Warren Buffett 2021 is under way, as our nation and the rest of the world look to begin to put the global pandemic...
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2021 Brings a Fresh Start
Happy New Year! A new year offers a welcomed turn of the calendar and a fresh start. However, it’s difficult to put 2020 completely behind us just yet because the COVID-19 pandemic still presents a significant threat. Healthcare...
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Outlook for 2021
As 2020 comes to a close, we are already looking forward to a new year—and to a world very different from the one we’re leaving behind. Areas of the economy have been damaged and may never fully recover, but other areas...
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Election Clarity for the Markets
Former Vice President Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President of the United States, defeating President Donald Trump in a tight race and bringing an end to the highly contested 2020 election. The new president-elect benefited...
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Election 2020 Is Undecided
The American people have voted, casting a record number of ballots under extraordinary circumstances, which is a testament to the enduring resilience of our democracy. Determining the outcome of our elections is a process, but it...
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Does Your Portfolio Reflect Your Risk Tolerance?
Happy Halloween!!! When it comes to investing, many people associate risk with losing money. But investing entails different types of risk. Understanding each type -- and the potential return associated with your retirement portfolio...
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12 COMMON FINANCIAL MISTAKES TO AVOID
Just as to-do lists can be a key part of planning, do-not-do lists can be helpful reminders to avoid mistakes that others have made. 1. Impulse investing. Avoid investing based on a whim or a tip. Don’t invest a certain way just...
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How Much Do You Need to Retire?
Picturing yourself as a retiree may be hard if not impossible. But if you could envision those future years, you'd probably see a life full of activity and decades of health, happiness, and prosperity. No rocking chairs and lap shawls...
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Signs of Strength in the Economy
Autumn has arrived, with students back in school, baseball playoffs beginning, and football in full swing. Life is trying to get back to as normal as possible despite the ongoing impact from COVID-19. While the number of new daily...
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Back to School in a New Way
Back to school this year will be different. On the one hand, like other years, it marks the end of summer, the arrival of cooler weather, kids hitting the books again, and Labor Day gatherings. But unlike other years, going back to...
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Positive Territory
The battle versus COVID-19 continues. The spread in some of the recent hotspots like California and Florida is slowing, while states in the Northeast and Midwest are now experiencing increases in cases. According to the World Health...
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Fourth of July Optimism
The July Fourth holiday will be very different this year. Although it’s a time to enjoy family and friends, and maybe even watch some fireworks, social distancing and a new wave of COVID-19 cases also may take a seat at the...
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Looking Forward
As we look ahead to the summer months, we can’t help but think what a challenging year it’s been so far. At the same time, we’re encouraged by the resiliency and accelerated innovation among US businesses and the...
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“Never confuse a single defeat with a final defeat.” — F. Scott Fitzgerald The economic struggles in our country are among the worst we’ve ever seen. In April, a record 20 million people lost their jobs, and 36...
Read MoreNowhere To Go But Up
Investors like labels for the economy and financial markets—many of them with the word “great” in them. The Great Depression. The Great Recession. The Great Lockdown. Well, we’ve moved into what we might call...
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